Monday, September 04, 2006
Turnovers and Penalties Stump Baylor
In front of the largest home crowd since 1973, Baylor looked ready to storm to a big win over the #22 TCU Horned Frogs. After the first quarter, the Baylor defense had held TCU to just 11 total yards, had gained 79 of their own in the new spread offense. Baylor would score its first touchdown, set up by CJ Wilson's 46 yard interception return, less than 3 minutes into the second quarter, but the offense sputtered the rest of the night after that.
The defense gave up one big play and one long drive and they proved to be the difference in the game. With 3 minutes left in the third quarter, a blown coverage left Aaron Brown come free out of the backfield, and catch a pass he would take the distance, 84-yards for the touchdown. That's the price of playing RSFR at linebacker.
But the long drive (12 plays, 86 yards) was what put the nail in the coffin for the day. The drive lasted more than 5 minutes, and wore on a defense that was depleted by injuries (LQ McDonald, Brandon Stiggers) and lack of hydration.
Those 14-points not only provided the 10point margin TCU won the game by, but also put a big dent in the confidence of the team.
Let's recap the offenses' performance on the day.
Shawn Bell passed for 286 yards on 31/47 passing (66%) with 1 TD and 1 INT. He was efficient, but continues to lack that killer instinct. I've seen him have it once, after coming off the bench against Missouri. That was the only game I remember him seeming relentless. Where is it? He better find it against Northwestern State.
Brandon Whitaker and Paul Mosley alternated between looking very good and looking just bad. Paul opened the game with an 8-yard run up the middle and had a 9 yard run mixed in there, but ended the day with only 17 other yards on 10 carries. Whitaker was worse. He had a long carry of 15 yards, but ended the day with only 18 net yards on 5 carries.
With the receivers, it was hard to tell. Parks played like a man, catching 7 passes for 65 very tough yards. On almost every catch he was either hit at the catch, or just after, and he was making catches in the teeth of TCUs defensive strength and experience. Zeigler had 6 catches for 56 yards, but was forced to make a couple circus catches to get those. Twice he had to lay out to make a catch. Shelton had the catch of the day, but ended with only 5 catches for 61 yards. Baker was the only person on Baylor's offense that scored, grabbing a 21 yard touchdown, but finished with 5 catches for 45 yards.
The main thing I noticed about the passing game is that while Bell doesn't really do anything to really scare you, he still isn't a very good QB. He consistently puts the ball where it makes for a difficult catch. On two of the cataches for Zeigler that didn't require him to slide on the field to make the catch, he had to slow down and reach behind him to get it. Shelton had to really work for his catches, too. And Mosley got up-ended after going up in the air to grab a two-yard pass. Morriss is right that we need more of a "gunslinger" out there, but even more than the killer-instinct is the need for someone that can lead their receivers, hit them in stride and not get them killed. Hopefully this, too, will improve over the next few games.
Now for the coaching...
I thought the offense moved well from 20-to-20. And Coach Hays admitted to my main concern: we never got really aggressive. The whole point of this offense is to be explosive, but we never really made an effort to get vertical. I KNOW Bell doesn't have a cannon, but my biggest fears were realized in that we consistently settled for a 5-yard drag route, or the crossing route 7-yards down the field. And my biggest aggravation: the little screen pass to the sideline that gained a total of zero yards until the final drive when TCU was in prevent mode, and barely 10 yards then.
I haven't watched the game again yet, but I don't remember seeing a screen pass to Whitaker until the final play of the game. I don't remember seeing a middle screen. I don't remember seeing a fade or corner route to the endzone when we got within 25 yards. The 4th and 1 play just didn't seem smart. We might have run play-action twice all game. There seemed to be a lot of things available to us that we didn't take advantage of, and I don't know why. I don't mean to say this was a sole reason, or even the primary reason, but I think it was of the main reasons, and I think that it's something that needs improvement quickly. Coach Hays says he realizes he needs to be more aggressive, so we'll see what we see next week.
On the defensive side of the ball, there was a lot more to be happy about, and a couple things to be just as upset about.
We gave up 330 yards on the day. That's 43 yards below our average for last year, which is good to see, but this was a performance with a lot of "could have"s. It could have been so much better. If we would have not blown the coverage on Aaron Brown, and not given up the 3rd down play, that's 84 fewer yards. We are not only looking at getting the ball back with decent field position, but the game is still 7-3 Baylor. If we could have stopped them on ANY 3rd-and-short, that would have been an improvement. We had three 3rd and shorts (1, 2, and 2 yards) and we gave up at least 1 yard too many on all three. TCU never went for it on fourth down, and maybe they would have gotten it on 4th if we stop them on 3rd, but maybe they punt it back to us. The fact is that we never forced them to make that decision.
Our defensive line played a good stalemate game, but aside from Geoff Nelson and Marcus Foreman, we didn't have any playmakers on the defensive line. You'll notice that neither one of those guys is a defensive tackle. We were up against a line that had one returning starter. I don't care how much backup duty the guys had, they weren't Big XII caliber and we are calling ourselves Big XII caliber. We didn't show it on the interior and we didn't show enough on the outside. Our lone sack was a combination of an end and and outside safety. Our only two QB hurries were from Nick Moore. If we can't manufacture some pass rush from the line, we aren't going to be performing to the level of our talk. MT Robinson and Klayton Shoals, two seniors, each had an assisted tackle. That's it. Vincent Rhodes and Corey Ford has 1 solo tackle apiece. Jason Lamb managed a tackle and two assists. I understand that we were running a 3 man front a lot of the time, but we have to get something from the line: pass breakups, tipped passes, and hurries if not tackles for loss and sacks.
The linebackers had a couple mental breakdowns that overshadowed their efforts, but were solid most of the game. The biggest player of the corps was Nick Moore, who showed that his experience really does mean something, leading all linebackers with 6 tackles, and half a TFL, as well as two QB hurries. We need more and better production from our young 'backers, but that should come in time. They weren't a glaring weakness, but didn't make the plays that we got from Allred and Harper.
The secondary played alright most of the night. There was a blown coverage that gave up the 84-yard touchdown, and Jackson completed 11/13 passes, but only gave up 8.6 yards per completion, even with the 84-yard pass. Without it, that number drops to 5.7 yards per completion. CJ Wilson got an interception, and nearly came away with another late in the game. We need more plays to be made, and we need better tackling. It seemed like some of the new players were going for the big hit, rather than wrapping up and taking the player to the ground. You don't have to blow guys up with every tackle. Just make sure you get him. I think of it like the "Roy Williams" mindset. It drives me crazy. Especially from our free safety...
Coaching -
I think the defensive coaches did a good job. The blitz wasn't as effective as I'd hoped, and we didn't adjust well to the new QB, but the blown coverage wasn't the coaches fault and the defense looked sound all game long.
Special teams was frustrating. Missed a field goal, poor coverage on kickoff to set up a TCU score. We needed a good effort across the board from the special teams, and we didn't get it. If we tackle that guy to open the second half around the 20 and force a 3 and out, TCU doesn't have nearly the momentum that they got off that one return. They were looking for ONE thing to give them an excuse to get excited, and we gave it to them.
Special teams against better teams is like Shawn Bell's Quarterbacking. On it's own, it isn't going to win us a game, but unless it's very good, it can lose us a game.
Overall, I have to give the team a grade of a B. We moved the ball well in the new system, we played good defense against a polished offense, and we only made a few mistakes. Those mistakes turned the game around, though. We can't keep doing that if we plan on getting to a bowl game.
Northwestern State is coming up! ¶ 9/04/2006
The defense gave up one big play and one long drive and they proved to be the difference in the game. With 3 minutes left in the third quarter, a blown coverage left Aaron Brown come free out of the backfield, and catch a pass he would take the distance, 84-yards for the touchdown. That's the price of playing RSFR at linebacker.
But the long drive (12 plays, 86 yards) was what put the nail in the coffin for the day. The drive lasted more than 5 minutes, and wore on a defense that was depleted by injuries (LQ McDonald, Brandon Stiggers) and lack of hydration.
Those 14-points not only provided the 10point margin TCU won the game by, but also put a big dent in the confidence of the team.
Let's recap the offenses' performance on the day.
Shawn Bell passed for 286 yards on 31/47 passing (66%) with 1 TD and 1 INT. He was efficient, but continues to lack that killer instinct. I've seen him have it once, after coming off the bench against Missouri. That was the only game I remember him seeming relentless. Where is it? He better find it against Northwestern State.
Brandon Whitaker and Paul Mosley alternated between looking very good and looking just bad. Paul opened the game with an 8-yard run up the middle and had a 9 yard run mixed in there, but ended the day with only 17 other yards on 10 carries. Whitaker was worse. He had a long carry of 15 yards, but ended the day with only 18 net yards on 5 carries.
With the receivers, it was hard to tell. Parks played like a man, catching 7 passes for 65 very tough yards. On almost every catch he was either hit at the catch, or just after, and he was making catches in the teeth of TCUs defensive strength and experience. Zeigler had 6 catches for 56 yards, but was forced to make a couple circus catches to get those. Twice he had to lay out to make a catch. Shelton had the catch of the day, but ended with only 5 catches for 61 yards. Baker was the only person on Baylor's offense that scored, grabbing a 21 yard touchdown, but finished with 5 catches for 45 yards.
The main thing I noticed about the passing game is that while Bell doesn't really do anything to really scare you, he still isn't a very good QB. He consistently puts the ball where it makes for a difficult catch. On two of the cataches for Zeigler that didn't require him to slide on the field to make the catch, he had to slow down and reach behind him to get it. Shelton had to really work for his catches, too. And Mosley got up-ended after going up in the air to grab a two-yard pass. Morriss is right that we need more of a "gunslinger" out there, but even more than the killer-instinct is the need for someone that can lead their receivers, hit them in stride and not get them killed. Hopefully this, too, will improve over the next few games.
Now for the coaching...
I thought the offense moved well from 20-to-20. And Coach Hays admitted to my main concern: we never got really aggressive. The whole point of this offense is to be explosive, but we never really made an effort to get vertical. I KNOW Bell doesn't have a cannon, but my biggest fears were realized in that we consistently settled for a 5-yard drag route, or the crossing route 7-yards down the field. And my biggest aggravation: the little screen pass to the sideline that gained a total of zero yards until the final drive when TCU was in prevent mode, and barely 10 yards then.
I haven't watched the game again yet, but I don't remember seeing a screen pass to Whitaker until the final play of the game. I don't remember seeing a middle screen. I don't remember seeing a fade or corner route to the endzone when we got within 25 yards. The 4th and 1 play just didn't seem smart. We might have run play-action twice all game. There seemed to be a lot of things available to us that we didn't take advantage of, and I don't know why. I don't mean to say this was a sole reason, or even the primary reason, but I think it was of the main reasons, and I think that it's something that needs improvement quickly. Coach Hays says he realizes he needs to be more aggressive, so we'll see what we see next week.
On the defensive side of the ball, there was a lot more to be happy about, and a couple things to be just as upset about.
We gave up 330 yards on the day. That's 43 yards below our average for last year, which is good to see, but this was a performance with a lot of "could have"s. It could have been so much better. If we would have not blown the coverage on Aaron Brown, and not given up the 3rd down play, that's 84 fewer yards. We are not only looking at getting the ball back with decent field position, but the game is still 7-3 Baylor. If we could have stopped them on ANY 3rd-and-short, that would have been an improvement. We had three 3rd and shorts (1, 2, and 2 yards) and we gave up at least 1 yard too many on all three. TCU never went for it on fourth down, and maybe they would have gotten it on 4th if we stop them on 3rd, but maybe they punt it back to us. The fact is that we never forced them to make that decision.
Our defensive line played a good stalemate game, but aside from Geoff Nelson and Marcus Foreman, we didn't have any playmakers on the defensive line. You'll notice that neither one of those guys is a defensive tackle. We were up against a line that had one returning starter. I don't care how much backup duty the guys had, they weren't Big XII caliber and we are calling ourselves Big XII caliber. We didn't show it on the interior and we didn't show enough on the outside. Our lone sack was a combination of an end and and outside safety. Our only two QB hurries were from Nick Moore. If we can't manufacture some pass rush from the line, we aren't going to be performing to the level of our talk. MT Robinson and Klayton Shoals, two seniors, each had an assisted tackle. That's it. Vincent Rhodes and Corey Ford has 1 solo tackle apiece. Jason Lamb managed a tackle and two assists. I understand that we were running a 3 man front a lot of the time, but we have to get something from the line: pass breakups, tipped passes, and hurries if not tackles for loss and sacks.
The linebackers had a couple mental breakdowns that overshadowed their efforts, but were solid most of the game. The biggest player of the corps was Nick Moore, who showed that his experience really does mean something, leading all linebackers with 6 tackles, and half a TFL, as well as two QB hurries. We need more and better production from our young 'backers, but that should come in time. They weren't a glaring weakness, but didn't make the plays that we got from Allred and Harper.
The secondary played alright most of the night. There was a blown coverage that gave up the 84-yard touchdown, and Jackson completed 11/13 passes, but only gave up 8.6 yards per completion, even with the 84-yard pass. Without it, that number drops to 5.7 yards per completion. CJ Wilson got an interception, and nearly came away with another late in the game. We need more plays to be made, and we need better tackling. It seemed like some of the new players were going for the big hit, rather than wrapping up and taking the player to the ground. You don't have to blow guys up with every tackle. Just make sure you get him. I think of it like the "Roy Williams" mindset. It drives me crazy. Especially from our free safety...
Coaching -
I think the defensive coaches did a good job. The blitz wasn't as effective as I'd hoped, and we didn't adjust well to the new QB, but the blown coverage wasn't the coaches fault and the defense looked sound all game long.
Special teams was frustrating. Missed a field goal, poor coverage on kickoff to set up a TCU score. We needed a good effort across the board from the special teams, and we didn't get it. If we tackle that guy to open the second half around the 20 and force a 3 and out, TCU doesn't have nearly the momentum that they got off that one return. They were looking for ONE thing to give them an excuse to get excited, and we gave it to them.
Special teams against better teams is like Shawn Bell's Quarterbacking. On it's own, it isn't going to win us a game, but unless it's very good, it can lose us a game.
Overall, I have to give the team a grade of a B. We moved the ball well in the new system, we played good defense against a polished offense, and we only made a few mistakes. Those mistakes turned the game around, though. We can't keep doing that if we plan on getting to a bowl game.
Northwestern State is coming up! ¶ 9/04/2006
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Here's how I saw it:
Baylor needs to get the ball downfield. Either by throwing deeper to the WRs or by better RAC. I would say that the highly advertised WRs for Baylor grossly underperformed. You really, really, really hyped them and they fizzed.
TCUs new OLINE played adequetely. They only gave up one sack but didnt seem to run a whole lot. I think missing the two stud RBs really hurt TCU, lots of cutbacks that could have potentially gone for BIG yardage were ignored. Im not sure how much TCU missed Depriest and Ballard, as they racked up two, game deciding, TD receptions without them. Depriest would have probablly added a little something. How much? Who knows.
TCUs DLine did all right. Can't ignore the turnovers they created or dismiss them as lucky. Blake stripped and recovered the fumble from Mosely and the DT batted the ball up for a good play. They didnt get much pressure on Bell which is a good sign for Baylor. But the two turnovers that TCUs Dline created won the game.
CJ Wilson. Wow. Great INT- probablly should have scored (caught by Ballard?) and had another good pass break up in the 4Q. but lets cut to the chase. How can he not keep Brown out of the endzone? All confernce players make that play- he couldnt. If he keeps him out does TCU score? They hadnt shown me anything that says they would have. Lost the game. Did he also blow the coverage on the goal line? Got to say he was a major disappointment.
TCU coaches outfoxed BU coaches. Morriss was outclassed. I didnt ever think that would happen...How about some conditioning??? How many baylor players got hurt? 5? 10?? 15??? They were falling everywhere! On TV it looked like TCU was just manhandleing the bears. How could they be in that much better shape? Did BU just ignore that aspect of the game? Failing to prepare is preparing to fail. Put that squarely on Morriss. I thought Morriss was better than that. Also going for it on 4th and 1 was questionable. TCUs line totally dominated that play and the backer took Mosely to school. After that BU quit. The look on Morriss' face said it all.
I felt like TCU decided it was time to win the game at the end of the 3Q and there was nothing BU or Morriss could do.
One final question. Is this big loss going to hurt Baylor all season? It is obvious Morriss placed tons of emphasis on this game. Does it totally deflate the team? Or can the bears rebound? I feel that BU can beat almost anyone. TT and UT are losses, mark those down, but everybody else is beatable. It all depends on how Morriss handles this. Are they going to lay down like they did against TCU or are they going to put up a fight?
Baylor needs to get the ball downfield. Either by throwing deeper to the WRs or by better RAC. I would say that the highly advertised WRs for Baylor grossly underperformed. You really, really, really hyped them and they fizzed.
TCUs new OLINE played adequetely. They only gave up one sack but didnt seem to run a whole lot. I think missing the two stud RBs really hurt TCU, lots of cutbacks that could have potentially gone for BIG yardage were ignored. Im not sure how much TCU missed Depriest and Ballard, as they racked up two, game deciding, TD receptions without them. Depriest would have probablly added a little something. How much? Who knows.
TCUs DLine did all right. Can't ignore the turnovers they created or dismiss them as lucky. Blake stripped and recovered the fumble from Mosely and the DT batted the ball up for a good play. They didnt get much pressure on Bell which is a good sign for Baylor. But the two turnovers that TCUs Dline created won the game.
CJ Wilson. Wow. Great INT- probablly should have scored (caught by Ballard?) and had another good pass break up in the 4Q. but lets cut to the chase. How can he not keep Brown out of the endzone? All confernce players make that play- he couldnt. If he keeps him out does TCU score? They hadnt shown me anything that says they would have. Lost the game. Did he also blow the coverage on the goal line? Got to say he was a major disappointment.
TCU coaches outfoxed BU coaches. Morriss was outclassed. I didnt ever think that would happen...How about some conditioning??? How many baylor players got hurt? 5? 10?? 15??? They were falling everywhere! On TV it looked like TCU was just manhandleing the bears. How could they be in that much better shape? Did BU just ignore that aspect of the game? Failing to prepare is preparing to fail. Put that squarely on Morriss. I thought Morriss was better than that. Also going for it on 4th and 1 was questionable. TCUs line totally dominated that play and the backer took Mosely to school. After that BU quit. The look on Morriss' face said it all.
I felt like TCU decided it was time to win the game at the end of the 3Q and there was nothing BU or Morriss could do.
One final question. Is this big loss going to hurt Baylor all season? It is obvious Morriss placed tons of emphasis on this game. Does it totally deflate the team? Or can the bears rebound? I feel that BU can beat almost anyone. TT and UT are losses, mark those down, but everybody else is beatable. It all depends on how Morriss handles this. Are they going to lay down like they did against TCU or are they going to put up a fight?
Wow, that's a long comment... I'll try to answer as much as I can.
I gave the team a B, because until that 84-yard touchdown pass, Baylor had held TCU to 161 yards and 9 first downs, through 39 minutes of the game. We gave up one long play, and we gave up one long drive. Other than that, TCU had drives of -4, 25, 3, 40, 57, 18, and 2 yards. That's seven drives averaging just 20 yards. While giving up 3 points.
The offense gained 333 yards with a long play of 15 and 18 yards (rushing and passing, respectively). That means we moved the ball consistently.
Basically I docked the team a letter grade for turning the ball over twice in the redzone.
You're right on TCUs OL. Baylor didn't have to blitz much, and we limited TCU to 2.9 yards per rush. I don't think missing the two RBs hurt as much as you say, because they aren't nearly as quick as Brown, and quickness is what you needed out there. And it's not like he got tired, he only rushed the ball 15 times.
TCUs DL made up for their substandard play with the turnovers. Yes, they tipped the ball, but weren't they supposed to harass Bell all game long and shut down the passing game? I wasn't impressed with them, aside from Blake. He's a man on the field.
CJ Wilson was having to come from another part of the field, as somebody (LaMar?) blew his coverage on the play. We were in Cover 3, and the player didn't stay with the deepest man on the play. Brown was already running full speed and CJ had to catch up, with little to no angle to help. If 4 tackles, 1 interception and 1 pass breakup is a major disappointment, then you must feel really bad about your secondary.
Conditioning is something that we struggled with against SMU last year, so don't go patting yourself on the back too much. It's frustrating and needs to get sorted out, but it's become somewhat of a tradition.
The 4th and 1 should have been a pass, one of those slip screens they love to run. I thought it was a bad play call, but we had to go for it at that point.
I seriously doubt this jeopardizes our season. We'll come back strong against NWSU, and then play a game against WSU, and get a win against Army. We'll see where we are coming out of the non-conference. I really think the offense is further along than anyone thought it would be. Just have to keep polishing it. I still think 7-5 is doable, and I'm sure the coaches do, too.
I gave the team a B, because until that 84-yard touchdown pass, Baylor had held TCU to 161 yards and 9 first downs, through 39 minutes of the game. We gave up one long play, and we gave up one long drive. Other than that, TCU had drives of -4, 25, 3, 40, 57, 18, and 2 yards. That's seven drives averaging just 20 yards. While giving up 3 points.
The offense gained 333 yards with a long play of 15 and 18 yards (rushing and passing, respectively). That means we moved the ball consistently.
Basically I docked the team a letter grade for turning the ball over twice in the redzone.
You're right on TCUs OL. Baylor didn't have to blitz much, and we limited TCU to 2.9 yards per rush. I don't think missing the two RBs hurt as much as you say, because they aren't nearly as quick as Brown, and quickness is what you needed out there. And it's not like he got tired, he only rushed the ball 15 times.
TCUs DL made up for their substandard play with the turnovers. Yes, they tipped the ball, but weren't they supposed to harass Bell all game long and shut down the passing game? I wasn't impressed with them, aside from Blake. He's a man on the field.
CJ Wilson was having to come from another part of the field, as somebody (LaMar?) blew his coverage on the play. We were in Cover 3, and the player didn't stay with the deepest man on the play. Brown was already running full speed and CJ had to catch up, with little to no angle to help. If 4 tackles, 1 interception and 1 pass breakup is a major disappointment, then you must feel really bad about your secondary.
Conditioning is something that we struggled with against SMU last year, so don't go patting yourself on the back too much. It's frustrating and needs to get sorted out, but it's become somewhat of a tradition.
The 4th and 1 should have been a pass, one of those slip screens they love to run. I thought it was a bad play call, but we had to go for it at that point.
I seriously doubt this jeopardizes our season. We'll come back strong against NWSU, and then play a game against WSU, and get a win against Army. We'll see where we are coming out of the non-conference. I really think the offense is further along than anyone thought it would be. Just have to keep polishing it. I still think 7-5 is doable, and I'm sure the coaches do, too.
Sorry for the lengthy post and thanks for your reply. Just two quick notes. The other TCU runners are better inside runners and have better vision. They tend to run north/south and pick up positive yardage on every play. Brown tends to go wide alot and thats why I think they could have helped.
I thought Wilson was disappointing b/c he had the angle on Brown and could have saved the play and maybe the game. His INT and PD were great, but he missed a chance at being outstanding.
Anyway, I really like your blog and Im not sure what your plans are with it but it is excellent. You seem to be very savvy about the bears and college football in general. Good luck to you with the season. I see 7 wins for the bears maybe 8 if they catch some breaks.
I thought Wilson was disappointing b/c he had the angle on Brown and could have saved the play and maybe the game. His INT and PD were great, but he missed a chance at being outstanding.
Anyway, I really like your blog and Im not sure what your plans are with it but it is excellent. You seem to be very savvy about the bears and college football in general. Good luck to you with the season. I see 7 wins for the bears maybe 8 if they catch some breaks.
Thanks again.
I think TCU is going to have their hands full against Tech, but there's not going to be many MWC teams that can hang with them. I wouldn't be surprised to see TCU get the championship again.
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I think TCU is going to have their hands full against Tech, but there's not going to be many MWC teams that can hang with them. I wouldn't be surprised to see TCU get the championship again.
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