Keys to the Game Keys to the Game


Samford will soon be on their way to meet the Bears in Waco and I’d like to look at the big picture of the game. What does the game mean to each of the teams and what is it going to take for them to win? Knowing myself like I do, I’ll probably wander around all sorts of topics about the game, so just bear with me.

Samford: What does the game mean?

For Samford, the game against EWC wasn’t a challenge. EWC is a brand new program and they didn’t have the talent or even a full coaching staff. So Samford is looking for a barometer. How good are we? For a D1-AA team like Samford, playing a BCS conference team, even one with the reputation of Baylor, is a huge step up in competition. Additionally, they are looking for a win, of course. They know they are a huge underdog (some off-shore casinos are giving Samford 29 points). But this is their Superbowl. If they can somehow pull this win off, they will have a huge publicity and recruiting cache to play off of. The Baylor team will have to be aware of this, and know that the Samford players are going to be intense and passionate about the game.

Baylor: What does the game mean?

It’s been years since Baylor has started 2-0, and this is a great opportunity to get that start. Baylor is looking to solidify their bowl-hopes with this non-conference schedule, and beating Samford is key to that.

Baylor is also looking to polish some of the rough spots that showed up in the SMU game. Bell needs to get into rhythm with his receivers. The offensive line needs to show that they can blow people off the ball from the first snap. The kick coverage squad needs to swarm to the returner and bring them down. And perhaps the biggest concern is the defense and their missed tackles.

Almost as important is getting the second and third string players some playing time. If Baylor is able to do that, it will mean that the first squads built a strong lead early in the game. Terrance Parks, the young receivers and the young secondary players are the ones most in needs of some playing time, and the younger defensive linemen could use some playing time as well.

So for Baylor the game means an opportunity to get one step closer to a bowl, and a chance to improve the experience of their depth and polish the skills of the starters.


Samford: How do they win?

The key to a Samford victory is going to have to be turnovers. They can’t muscle up the Baylor lines, and they don’t have the gamebreakers at the skill positions, so they will have to force turnovers and short fields. That will limit Baylor’s scoring opportunities, make Baylor players think too much and give them shorter fields to work with.

Baylor: How do they win?

Offensive consistency and good tackling. There don’t need to be any outstanding performances from any single player, there just needs to consistent effort and good execution. Baylor players also need to be sure that they equal the intensity of the Samford players. If they can come out and score quick and break the Samford teams will, the game will be much easier. But if Baylor allows Samford to get some drives going or even score early, then the Bulldogs confidence is going to get up. The Bears need to come out fast, make the Bulldogs doubt themselves and then pound them over and over again.


Overall, this is definitely the easiest of Baylor’s opponents this season. But Baylor needs to stay focused, because this game can do a lot for their future success against tougher opponents. Polishing their passing game will pay dividends as soon as the next week against Army, as can fixing the missed tackle problem. The confidence boost that will come from being 2-0 and having a chance at being 3-0 coming out of the non-conference season will be good for the Bears going into the conference play.


PREDICTION TIME:
Baylor 56
Samford 9  ¶ 9/08/2005 0 Comments

  Samford Offense Preview

Last week Samford defeated Edward Waters College. They are in their first year of competition at the NAIA level. Take that into mind when seeing these stats.


Quarterbacks

Samford has two QBs that are splitting time this year, Parker Gargis (5-10 185) and Jefferson Adcock (5-11 200). Both played in last weeks win over EWC, and both scored touchdowns last week, but Adcock was the starter for the game. Neither are much of a passing threat. Here are their stats from last weeks win. The third string QB, Dante Williams, also got into the action at the end of the game.

Jefferson Adcock - 4/10 (40%) for 176 yards, 2 TDs and 1 INT

Parker Gargis - 6/8 (75%) for 57 yards,

Dante Williams - 5/8 (62.5%) for 69 yards, 2 TDs

Baylor's secondary is a strength of the team, giving up less than 70 yards before SMUs final drive against the Prevent defense last week. It should not be too difficult for them to contain this meager passing attack.


Running Backs

Justin Ray is the starting RB for the Bulldogs. He's got good size (5-10 210) and ran for a good average (6.1ypc) last week on 15 carries. Drew Guess (5-11 210) is the backup and got a good amount of playing time as well last week. I'll also include the quarterback rushing stats here, as that seems to be a big part of the Bulldogs offense.

Justin Ray - 15 carries for 92 yards (6.1ypc), 2 TDs

Drew Guess - 12 carries for 108 yards (9.0 ypc), 1 TD

Jefferson Adcock - 3 carries for 27 yards (9.0 ypc)

Parker Gargis - 3 carries for 13 yards (4.3ypc), 1 TD

Facing the Baylor run defense is going to be much different than facing an NAIA team. Our linebackers and safeties are going to be focused on wrapping up and bringing the runner to the ground after struggling with that last week and Samford should struggle to rush for more than 100 yards on the day.


Receivers

Samford threw for over 300 yards on EWC, and they spread the 15 completions around. No player caught more than 3 passes, and 4 players caught only one. Ossie Buchannon (6-0 202), J.T. Washington (6-1 185), Freddy Young (6-1 190), and Joe Jones (5-11 175) are the starters for Samford, who list 4 WRs and 1 TE on the starting lineup. Now obviously, they can't start 12 players, and last week, and last week Jones, Washington and Buchannon got the start. Here are the stats for Samfords receivers:

Joe Jones - 3 catches for 52 yards (17.3ypc)

Ossie Buchannon - 2 catches for 107 yards (53.5ypc)

David Lee - 2 catches for 44 (22.0ypc)

Jeff Moore - 2 catches for 21 yards (10.5ypc)

J.T. Washington - 2 catches for 17 yards (8.5ypc)

Justin Ray(RB) - 1 catches for 33 yards

Freddy Young - 1 catch for 11yards

S. Johnson - 1 catch for 9 yards

Adrian Bradley - 1 catch for 8 yards

I would look for Samford to stay with the same corp of starting WRs, and not spread the ball around as much. I would almost certainly expect to see the average yards per catch to drop as they are not able to get as much yardage after the catch. Samford will probably throw the ball more, especially if they get down early, and so Baylor fans can expect to see more passes thrown, but I don't think there will be many more completions, and certainly there should be more interceptions.


Offensive Line

When looking at our next two opponents, one thing struck me. Samford has a much bigger offensive line and more experience than Army does. Samford has a lot of size along the offensive line and will look to overpower the Baylor defensive line in this game. Here are the starters for last weeks game and their backups.

LT Pughsley, Kevin 6-4 290
Jonathan Loudermilk 6-3 265

LG Crum, Matt 6-3 302
XXXX(No backup listed) xxxxxx

C Lemmond, Graham 6-2 275
Tommy Smith 6-2 280

RG Smith, Tommy 6-2 280
Mitchell Waters 6-4 270

RT Hooper, Colby 6-4 265
Jonathan Loudermilk 6-3 265

Baylor's defensive line got good pressure against SMU last week, and I would expect more of the same. Baylor fans can count on more sacks, and more tackles for loss, and a much lower yard-per-carry average for the running game. Tommy Smith, starting RG and backup center, is a RSFR and will be facing either Micahel Gary or MT Robinson, both of whom will outweigh him by 20 pounds and will likely have much greater strength. Expect pressure up the midde and for the offensive line to wear down against our defensive tackle rotation.



I don't think that Samford will score more than 10 points this game, and I think there's a good shot they could be shutout this week, but that depends on the ability of the defense to stay focused and play with the same intensity that they played with against SMU. I believe that they will come out early and shut down the Samford offense, and as Samford slips further behind, they will go to the air more, producing turnovers.  ¶ 9/08/2005 0 Comments