Baylor Football Blog
Monday, August 21, 2006
TOADKILLERS: PART TWO!!
Wow, just saw another post that I loved...
It'd be easy to chalk this up to "competition level", wouldn't it? I'll try to stay away from that, but I do have a couple comments.
Sacks - Yes, TCU has better rush ends than Baylor does.
Sacks Given Up - 2 over 11 or 12 games.
TFLs - 30 TFL different. 20 of those are sacks that I've already addressed. Still, that's less than 3 per game
TFL Given Up - Difference of 4, did you really just list any stat that gave TCU ANY kind of edge?
Fumble Recoveries - I suppose so... 1 additional FR.
Fumbles Lost - Difference of 4 is actually a big stat. I'd be more worried if our RBs had even one of those fumbles. But neither of them fumbled in their more than 300 carries.
Passes Intercepted - 10 more interceptions. Very impressive. Seriously in case there are Toads out there that think I'm being sarcastic. Baylor only finished 4 spots behind TCU in Pass Efficiency Defense, so it's not like our secondary wasn't impressive in its own right (I'm trying very hard to stay away from the competition argument on this one).
Passes Had Intercepted - Back to the difference of 1...
If the person had really been trying to make a strong argument, just listing the sacks, interceptions and tackles for loss would have done it. The other stat categories just make the whole thing look likes he's reaching for ANYTHING that can prove TCU is better than Baylor.
Now, I know I promised, but really, does the guy who threw this up think that stats put up in the MWC are DIRECTLY-TRANSLATABLE to the Big XII? If he was talking SEC, Pac-10, ACC, Big 10(11), then he might have a point, but there is a definite difference between the BCS conferences and those that are not BCS.
There are TEAMS in the non-BCS conferences (like TCU) that rise above their brethren, but that doesn't mean that their stats can be translated to the BCS conferences at a 1:1 ratio.
Bottom Line: Frog fans, do you really think that TCU would have put up those EXACT stats in the Big XII if you had Baylor's place? If not, then what's the point of this argument? If so, what do you base that on? Simple questions. ¶ 8/21/2006 0 Comments
Wow, just saw another post that I loved...
TCU had more sacks 41 than Baylor 21
TCU gave up less sacks 24 than Baylor 26
TCU had more TFL 100 than Baylor 70
TCU gave up less TFL 60 than Baylor 64
TCU had more fumble recoveries 14 than Baylor 13
TCU gave up less fumbles 8 than Baylor 12
TCU had more interceptions 26 than Baylor 16
TCU gave up less interceptions 11 than Baylor 12
It'd be easy to chalk this up to "competition level", wouldn't it? I'll try to stay away from that, but I do have a couple comments.
Sacks - Yes, TCU has better rush ends than Baylor does.
Sacks Given Up - 2 over 11 or 12 games.
TFLs - 30 TFL different. 20 of those are sacks that I've already addressed. Still, that's less than 3 per game
TFL Given Up - Difference of 4, did you really just list any stat that gave TCU ANY kind of edge?
Fumble Recoveries - I suppose so... 1 additional FR.
Fumbles Lost - Difference of 4 is actually a big stat. I'd be more worried if our RBs had even one of those fumbles. But neither of them fumbled in their more than 300 carries.
Passes Intercepted - 10 more interceptions. Very impressive. Seriously in case there are Toads out there that think I'm being sarcastic. Baylor only finished 4 spots behind TCU in Pass Efficiency Defense, so it's not like our secondary wasn't impressive in its own right (I'm trying very hard to stay away from the competition argument on this one).
Passes Had Intercepted - Back to the difference of 1...
If the person had really been trying to make a strong argument, just listing the sacks, interceptions and tackles for loss would have done it. The other stat categories just make the whole thing look likes he's reaching for ANYTHING that can prove TCU is better than Baylor.
Now, I know I promised, but really, does the guy who threw this up think that stats put up in the MWC are DIRECTLY-TRANSLATABLE to the Big XII? If he was talking SEC, Pac-10, ACC, Big 10(11), then he might have a point, but there is a definite difference between the BCS conferences and those that are not BCS.
There are TEAMS in the non-BCS conferences (like TCU) that rise above their brethren, but that doesn't mean that their stats can be translated to the BCS conferences at a 1:1 ratio.
Bottom Line: Frog fans, do you really think that TCU would have put up those EXACT stats in the Big XII if you had Baylor's place? If not, then what's the point of this argument? If so, what do you base that on? Simple questions. ¶ 8/21/2006 0 Comments
Welcome ToadKillers!!
I see you've found my humble blog. I hope you don't have a heart attack that someone believes that you're team is beatable.
On the thread discussing my blog, I found this charming post:
Now, these are my favorite types of posts - the kind that call someone an idiot for "failing to show the whole truth" and then throwing out stats of your own. Let's take those games one by one, shall we?
OU - 225 vs. 474
TCU played OU with Paul Thompson as QB in his first career start at QB. Needless to say, he turned in a poor performance. Additionally, TCU played only four quarters.
Baylor played OU to 2 OTs, accounting for 50 extra yards for OU. That drops the difference to 199 yards. We played with Rhett Bomar at QB, after he'd gone through the fire of playing Texas and had thrown for over 200 yards in two games.
Now I'm not pretending that this was a stellar defensive effort by the Bears, it was one of their two worst for the year, but let's make sure we're getting as close to apples-to-apples as possible, alright? On to the far more hilarious....
SMU - 271 vs 276
5 yards? We faced them in the first game of our season, and had our scrubs in the last two drives they went on. Oh, and we WON.
Army 362 vs 284
Ok, so ya'll allowed 78 more yards. At home. I'm not sure what your point was with that one...
ISU 288 vs 320
Alright, difference of 32 yards. We played them in Ames, Iowa while TCU played them in Texas. Hmm... This is another mystery. We beat them by 10 points, ya'll beat them by 3. Kinda scratching my head with this one.
Thanks for the entertaining interlude, though. I'm sure I'll enjoy more of these little chats in the next two weeks, then I can forget TCU exists until the next offseason. ¶ 8/21/2006 0 Comments
I see you've found my humble blog. I hope you don't have a heart attack that someone believes that you're team is beatable.
On the thread discussing my blog, I found this charming post:
This idiot keeps on comparing stats for common opponents. But fails to show the whole truth.
TCU yards yielded vs BU yards yieled
OU- 225 vs 474
SMU 271 vs 276
Army 362 vs 284
ISU 288 vs 320
Now, these are my favorite types of posts - the kind that call someone an idiot for "failing to show the whole truth" and then throwing out stats of your own. Let's take those games one by one, shall we?
OU - 225 vs. 474
TCU played OU with Paul Thompson as QB in his first career start at QB. Needless to say, he turned in a poor performance. Additionally, TCU played only four quarters.
Baylor played OU to 2 OTs, accounting for 50 extra yards for OU. That drops the difference to 199 yards. We played with Rhett Bomar at QB, after he'd gone through the fire of playing Texas and had thrown for over 200 yards in two games.
Now I'm not pretending that this was a stellar defensive effort by the Bears, it was one of their two worst for the year, but let's make sure we're getting as close to apples-to-apples as possible, alright? On to the far more hilarious....
SMU - 271 vs 276
5 yards? We faced them in the first game of our season, and had our scrubs in the last two drives they went on. Oh, and we WON.
Army 362 vs 284
Ok, so ya'll allowed 78 more yards. At home. I'm not sure what your point was with that one...
ISU 288 vs 320
Alright, difference of 32 yards. We played them in Ames, Iowa while TCU played them in Texas. Hmm... This is another mystery. We beat them by 10 points, ya'll beat them by 3. Kinda scratching my head with this one.
Thanks for the entertaining interlude, though. I'm sure I'll enjoy more of these little chats in the next two weeks, then I can forget TCU exists until the next offseason. ¶ 8/21/2006 0 Comments
Is This News? - TCU to play a lot of different players on Defense....
http://www.dfw.com/mld/dfw/sports/colleges/15324060.htm
FOUR CBs will play? FOUR!? Oh my gosh. That means Patterson will utilize his two deep. The same with linebacker. Two deep.
And with safety and defensive end, TCU will go 3 deep.
Is this a shock? I feel like I'm taking crazy pills, because I'm pretty sure Baylor is going to play at least 6 DEs, at least 6 DTs, at least 6 LBs, at least 5-6 CBs and at least 6 safeties. How is the sports news so slow in DFW that the fact that TCU uses their two-deep newsworthy?
No doubt there will be TCU fans (not our friend Michael, I think) that will cheer about this development, and call it the genius of Gary Patterson. "Man, doesn't that CGP know how to use personnel?"
Another thing likely to happen is that they will automatically assume that all 3 levels of their depth chart are equal. "There's no drop off from the starters to the 3rd string!"
Baylor has a pretty salty defense, but I can think of only the CB position that can go 3 deep without MUCH dropoff.
CJ Wilson, Anthony Arline, Braelon Davis, James Todd, Alton Widemon, and Josh Bell.
DE/DT/LB/S? No. Safety has a very stout 2-deep. DT has a stout 2-deep. But as far as going 3-deep without having question marks, nope. And I'm certain that there are question marks with some of TCUs first stringers without getting into their third string.
Crap. Look what I've done. I've taken a story that was about nothing, and turned it into a blog entry. Sorry for wasting your time.
¶ 8/21/2006 0 Comments
http://www.dfw.com/mld/dfw/sports/colleges/15324060.htm
The defense has the most quality depth. Patterson said four linebackers, four cornerbacks, five defensive tackles, six defensive ends and 10 safeties will play against Baylor.Wow... Tell me again how this is news? How is this special? Is the writer of this article under the impression that most teams ONLY play their starters?
FOUR CBs will play? FOUR!? Oh my gosh. That means Patterson will utilize his two deep. The same with linebacker. Two deep.
And with safety and defensive end, TCU will go 3 deep.
Is this a shock? I feel like I'm taking crazy pills, because I'm pretty sure Baylor is going to play at least 6 DEs, at least 6 DTs, at least 6 LBs, at least 5-6 CBs and at least 6 safeties. How is the sports news so slow in DFW that the fact that TCU uses their two-deep newsworthy?
No doubt there will be TCU fans (not our friend Michael, I think) that will cheer about this development, and call it the genius of Gary Patterson. "Man, doesn't that CGP know how to use personnel?"
Another thing likely to happen is that they will automatically assume that all 3 levels of their depth chart are equal. "There's no drop off from the starters to the 3rd string!"
Baylor has a pretty salty defense, but I can think of only the CB position that can go 3 deep without MUCH dropoff.
CJ Wilson, Anthony Arline, Braelon Davis, James Todd, Alton Widemon, and Josh Bell.
DE/DT/LB/S? No. Safety has a very stout 2-deep. DT has a stout 2-deep. But as far as going 3-deep without having question marks, nope. And I'm certain that there are question marks with some of TCUs first stringers without getting into their third string.
Crap. Look what I've done. I've taken a story that was about nothing, and turned it into a blog entry. Sorry for wasting your time.
¶ 8/21/2006 0 Comments
An Opponents View: A TCU Fans Take on the Baylor-TCU Game
This is something that I tried to implement last year, but could never find a fan that was willing to write something that wasn't filled with biting, sarcastic, stupid comments. Thankfully, our guest author was the complete opposite of that and has written a very good, insightful article clarifying something for Baylor fans who don't live and breathe TCU Football.
I appreciate your help, Michael.
Enjoy!
TCU Defensive Line:
They rotate players like crazy on the Defensive Line so who starts and who doesn't isn't as important as some may think. Other players that will be heavily involved are Sr. Jared Retkofsky, Sr. Jarrecea Williams and Sophomore James Vess. Most of our lineman are undersized ( except for J. Williams and Lorenzo Jones ) but they are very strong and Patterson's defense is built on speed instead of the more traditional plodding lineman. We had a lot of trouble with the wider splits at Tech in 04 so you may have a valid point in thinking we will struggle. I just know that this will be a key aspect of the game because if TCU can't get pressure up front it usually leads to big plays. The entire defense is predicated on pressuring the Quarterback and hurrying him into bad decisions.
TCU Linebackers
As mentioned this is our strongest group. Jason Phillips and David Hawthorne will start and Robert Henson and Darius Ingram will back them up but get a lot of playing time. Phillips is a really smart player and he is always around the ball. He was a quarterback in High School and he just seems to have a great feel for the game. There is also a newcomer named Daryl Washington that sat out a year after High School but apparently has looked amazing in practice. I would be surprised to see him contribute at Linebacker but he will be on Special Teams without a doubt.
TCU Secondary
I can see where you are coming from in feeling that TCU's cornerbacks will be a weak spot but I think you will be surprised. Priest and Sanders are both Redshirt Freshman. ( I believe you had mentioned that Sanders was a true frosh ) The thing that Frog fans love about Gary Patterson is that he isn't afraid to start a young kid ahead of an upperclassmen. He has stated numerous times that these corners have outstanding talent and he is starting them over Seniors for a reason. It all boils down to the fact that we won't know until game day how these kids react. TCU puts their corners on an island consistently so they have to be good cover guys. I know that Baylor has great talent at Wide Receiver so I am concerned about this area. In regards to Safety the Frogs are really deep. Marvin White is an animal who will knock your head off and make people think about coming over the middle again. He is TCU's best DB and has improved his cover skills greatly since coming over from the JUCO level. Other names to look for are Steven Coleman, Stephen Hodge and Brian Bonner. This group is rotated a lot to keep them fresh.
TCU Quarterback
If Ballard gets hurt we are in big trouble. Losing Chad Huffman to pro baseball depleted TCU's depth in this area. The main backup in Marcus Jackson but he is a big unknown. Behind him are two true freshman. Ballard manages games well and doesn't get rattled easily.
TCU Running Back
Not much to mention that you didn't already cover. Aaron Brown is the most talented of the bunch. Hobbs has stayed hurt the last few years and they are moving him to fullback this year so look for Merrill and Brown to get most of the carries. Apparently Merrill had off-season back surgery so hopefully he is up to speed by Sept. 3.
TCU O-Line
This is a big worry for TCU fans but I also want to point out that most of these guys have had significant playing time…they just haven't started yet. When you call Matty Lindner a " career backup " it has a negative tone to it. The coaches love him and he has just been behind some really good lineman his last few years. He's got a nasty streak which all lineman need in my opinion so I think he'll be fine. Giles Montgomery is also a guy that the coaches are really high on. He started and played really well in the Bowl game last year. It all boils down to the fact that we can't afford injuries in this area. Our depth is really thin but I think the starters will be good. If we get a few guys hurt though we could be in big trouble.
TCU Receivers
Once again these guys are rotated on almost every play. Losing Cory Rodgers hurts a lot as he was TCU's go to guy last year. I agree with your assessment of most of these guys. The one that you didn't write up that I think will have a break out year is Donald Massey. He has a ton of talent and will do his best to replace Rodgers as the " playmaker " for the offense. They run him on reverses a lot and if he gets space he is a home run threat. The other receiver to watch for is Walter Bryant. He is a larger possession type receiver that is good at moving the chains.
Final Game Assessment
I think this is going to be a hard fought game. I can see TCU's offense having trouble scoring on Baylor's D. The reason I think that TCU will win is because of it's Defense. Even though Guy Morriss has said that installing the new offense isn't that complicated I just feel that a team's first game running a system like this is tough. Look at Tech's first season as an example. Guy has gotten his team sky high for this game. I have no doubt the Bears feel they will win and they very well could. It will all come down to turnovers and who can capitalize on them. I'll predict a 24-20 TCU win with one defensive touchdown. The Frogs are used to not getting respect because of the non-bcs conference but I think you'll be surprised at the talent level of this team. Regardless I'll be back to either eat crow or pat myself on the back. Good luck! ( In every game but this one of course :) ¶ 8/21/2006 0 Comments
This is something that I tried to implement last year, but could never find a fan that was willing to write something that wasn't filled with biting, sarcastic, stupid comments. Thankfully, our guest author was the complete opposite of that and has written a very good, insightful article clarifying something for Baylor fans who don't live and breathe TCU Football.
I appreciate your help, Michael.
Enjoy!
TCU Defensive Line:
They rotate players like crazy on the Defensive Line so who starts and who doesn't isn't as important as some may think. Other players that will be heavily involved are Sr. Jared Retkofsky, Sr. Jarrecea Williams and Sophomore James Vess. Most of our lineman are undersized ( except for J. Williams and Lorenzo Jones ) but they are very strong and Patterson's defense is built on speed instead of the more traditional plodding lineman. We had a lot of trouble with the wider splits at Tech in 04 so you may have a valid point in thinking we will struggle. I just know that this will be a key aspect of the game because if TCU can't get pressure up front it usually leads to big plays. The entire defense is predicated on pressuring the Quarterback and hurrying him into bad decisions.
TCU Linebackers
As mentioned this is our strongest group. Jason Phillips and David Hawthorne will start and Robert Henson and Darius Ingram will back them up but get a lot of playing time. Phillips is a really smart player and he is always around the ball. He was a quarterback in High School and he just seems to have a great feel for the game. There is also a newcomer named Daryl Washington that sat out a year after High School but apparently has looked amazing in practice. I would be surprised to see him contribute at Linebacker but he will be on Special Teams without a doubt.
TCU Secondary
I can see where you are coming from in feeling that TCU's cornerbacks will be a weak spot but I think you will be surprised. Priest and Sanders are both Redshirt Freshman. ( I believe you had mentioned that Sanders was a true frosh ) The thing that Frog fans love about Gary Patterson is that he isn't afraid to start a young kid ahead of an upperclassmen. He has stated numerous times that these corners have outstanding talent and he is starting them over Seniors for a reason. It all boils down to the fact that we won't know until game day how these kids react. TCU puts their corners on an island consistently so they have to be good cover guys. I know that Baylor has great talent at Wide Receiver so I am concerned about this area. In regards to Safety the Frogs are really deep. Marvin White is an animal who will knock your head off and make people think about coming over the middle again. He is TCU's best DB and has improved his cover skills greatly since coming over from the JUCO level. Other names to look for are Steven Coleman, Stephen Hodge and Brian Bonner. This group is rotated a lot to keep them fresh.
TCU Quarterback
If Ballard gets hurt we are in big trouble. Losing Chad Huffman to pro baseball depleted TCU's depth in this area. The main backup in Marcus Jackson but he is a big unknown. Behind him are two true freshman. Ballard manages games well and doesn't get rattled easily.
TCU Running Back
Not much to mention that you didn't already cover. Aaron Brown is the most talented of the bunch. Hobbs has stayed hurt the last few years and they are moving him to fullback this year so look for Merrill and Brown to get most of the carries. Apparently Merrill had off-season back surgery so hopefully he is up to speed by Sept. 3.
TCU O-Line
This is a big worry for TCU fans but I also want to point out that most of these guys have had significant playing time…they just haven't started yet. When you call Matty Lindner a " career backup " it has a negative tone to it. The coaches love him and he has just been behind some really good lineman his last few years. He's got a nasty streak which all lineman need in my opinion so I think he'll be fine. Giles Montgomery is also a guy that the coaches are really high on. He started and played really well in the Bowl game last year. It all boils down to the fact that we can't afford injuries in this area. Our depth is really thin but I think the starters will be good. If we get a few guys hurt though we could be in big trouble.
TCU Receivers
Once again these guys are rotated on almost every play. Losing Cory Rodgers hurts a lot as he was TCU's go to guy last year. I agree with your assessment of most of these guys. The one that you didn't write up that I think will have a break out year is Donald Massey. He has a ton of talent and will do his best to replace Rodgers as the " playmaker " for the offense. They run him on reverses a lot and if he gets space he is a home run threat. The other receiver to watch for is Walter Bryant. He is a larger possession type receiver that is good at moving the chains.
Final Game Assessment
I think this is going to be a hard fought game. I can see TCU's offense having trouble scoring on Baylor's D. The reason I think that TCU will win is because of it's Defense. Even though Guy Morriss has said that installing the new offense isn't that complicated I just feel that a team's first game running a system like this is tough. Look at Tech's first season as an example. Guy has gotten his team sky high for this game. I have no doubt the Bears feel they will win and they very well could. It will all come down to turnovers and who can capitalize on them. I'll predict a 24-20 TCU win with one defensive touchdown. The Frogs are used to not getting respect because of the non-bcs conference but I think you'll be surprised at the talent level of this team. Regardless I'll be back to either eat crow or pat myself on the back. Good luck! ( In every game but this one of course :) ¶ 8/21/2006 0 Comments
