TCU Preview, Part Two: TCU Defense

TCU has the reputation for being a hard-hitting, tough defense. Being a native of Fort Worth, I can tell you that there isn't a day that goes by that I don't hear about it on radio commercials broadcast on the sports talk stations. And I don't doubt that they had a pretty salty defense last year, and in 2003. But let's not kid ourselves, they played in the MWC last year, and in ConfUSA in 2003. And despite the groans of TCU fans, competition DOES matter.

I will look at production, from a competition standpoint, and I will look at the talent levels as I perceive them to be. Let's get started.


TCU Defensive Line

Likely Starters:

DE - Chase Ortiz (6-3 250) 37 tkls, 14 TFL, 9 sacks, 2 FF
DT - Cody Moore (6-1 276) 5 tkls, 1.5 TFL
DT - Lorenzo Jones (6-4 311) 11 tkls, 3.5 TFL, 1.5 sacks
DE - Tommy Blake (6-3 250) 57 tkls, 13.5 TFL, 7 sacks


Let's first deal with the losses. TCU lost both their starting DTs from last year's line. They are quick to point out that they go 18-35 deep at defensive line, so that won't matter, but there is definitely a reason they were starting ahead of the guys behind them.

Replacing those two players are Cody Moore and Lorenzo Jones. Jones is the best tackle that TCU has, and it's no surprise that he was easily able to beat out Willams (SR DT) for the starting spot this year. He's big, and very quick. He was named the 25th best DT in the nation by Rivals, and played as a true freshman.

Moore is a sophomore, who RS'd as a true freshman, and then lettered as a reserve last year as a true freshman. He's still very much undersized, but he should be the stronger of the two tackles, despite his youth.

TCUs DE is where they have players along the line. Ortiz and Blake have the type of production you are looking for from your ends. They both have very good sack numbers (7 and 9), and get after the QB. They are undersized at 250 pounds, though, and rely on their quickness. They won't be much help at the point of attack, especially playing against guys like Travis Farst, Jason Smith, Matt Lott, and Thad Boatner.

And let's look at their sacks against our common opponents:

OU - Neither recorded a sack and they combined for 1 TFL for a loss of 1 yard.
Our defensive ends combined for 1.5 sacks, for a loss of 9 yards

Army - Neither recorded a sack and they combined for 1.5 TFL for a loss of 5 yards.
Our defensive ends combined for 2 sacks and 2 TFL for a loss of 15 yards.

SMU - Again, neither recorded a sack and they combined for 1 TFL for a loss of 3 yards.
Our defensive ends combined for 1 sack and they combined for 2 TFL for a loss of 7 yards.

ISU - They combined for 3 sacks, and 4.5 TFL for a loss of 35 yards (average of 7.7)
Our defensive ends combined for 1 sack and 2 TFL for a loss of 8 yards.

Total: 3 sacks, 8 TFL
Ours : 5.5 sacks, 7.5 TFL

So, how much better are TCUs DEs? Not at all, in my opinion.

Now I know that their DEs don't go up against ours, but I'm trying to show that you shouldn't get distracted by the gaudy stats. You have to look at them in perspective. Yes, they've been successful, but they've mainly been so against teams like Wyoming, New Mexico, UNLV, etc. Not that big of a surprise.


TCU DL vs. Baylor OL:

Here's Baylor's starting OL:

Jason Smith (6-5 292)
Will Blaylock (6-2 302)
Yancy Boatner (6-4 328)
Chad Smith (6-6 295)
Travis Farst (6-7 333)

Baylor should have no problem dealing with TCUs entire line. Blaylock and Boatner are two of our best offensive linemen, and Chad Smith has a lot of experience, including 4 starts in his first two years. He likely would have had many more, if he hadn't been injured and taken a medical redshirt early last year. The difference in size is staggering, but also consider that these are our strongest offensive linemen, and I'm not worried about pressure from their tackles. Jones is a talented player, but he'll be facing guys that have been in our program, in a tough defense for at the very least three years. They are men compared to him, and have been through the battles at the Big XII level. He won't get much help from the backups or from Moore.

Our OTs will have to deal with Ortiz and Blake, who some of the better DEs we'll face. Jason Smith is young, and this will be his first year on the line, but he's already shown himself to be among our best players on the OL and the most athletic. I think he'll be able to deal with the DEs the best. Farst is a mountain, and will have more of a problem dealing with the smaller, quicker DEs, but he is so much stronger, that he'll have to use a power game against the DE. Here is where the splits will help Farst the most. Whoever is lining up against him, will have to do so much farther from the QB than he is used to.

Further the fact that Bell is able to use his mobility and his reads to get rid of the ball quickly, and the fact that this offense is designed to get rid of the ball quickly, it's unlikely that there are going to be many opportunities for sacks.

TCUs line is not built to stop the run, but luckily Baylor's offense isn't built to run the ball. I do think that on those draw plays and screen plays that TCUs undersized defenders are going to have trouble dealing with the linemen as they get down the field to block. It will be interesting to see how they utilize their speed to minimize the huge size disadvantage.

Edge: Baylor OL.


TCUs Linebackers:

Starters:
Jason Phillips (6-1 234) 71 tkls, 8.5 TFL, 1 sack
Robert Henson (6-1 217) 69 tkls, 8.5 TFL, 2 sacks

Henson and Phillips are both sophomores that led the team in tackles last year as freshmen. They both rely on their speed rather than size/strength, but they get the job done. They are both around the ball all the time, and should be even better this year after a year of seasoning. They did have the luxury of playing behind experienced tackles, and offenses spent more attention on the DEs, but it would be a mistake to underestimate their talent.

Behind them are David Hawthorne (6-0 225), Ryan Schlenger (6-3 195) and Darius Ingram (6-2 235). These guys should provide solid depth and reinforce this position as the strongest on the defense, and perhaps the team (though the RBs might have something to say about that).

TCU LBs vs. Baylor RBs:

Brandon Whitaker (5-10 190)
Paul Mosley (6-3 236)

While the running back position will undergo a serious shift in responsibility this season, Baylor has two very talented backs ready to take up the challenge. Whitaker is a lightning-fast back who can make the cuts and take the ball up the field in a hurry. He was born to play in this offense and TCU might be the game he breaks out with. Mosley is not going to be left out of the offense, despite the fact that it doesn't fit him perfectly. He's got NFL size and speed, and he'll be looking to punish those small TCU defenders that are trying to bring him down. If he can take advantage of the swing passes to get some speed built up, he's going to be hard to bring down.

TCUs LBs will have to be on their game as they try to shut down screen passes, blitz the QB, and meet the Baylor running backs before they really get going. It's going to be a tough order to fill, but it'd be foolish to say they couldn't handle it. With so many question marks, and even though I hate to do this, this battle is too close to call.

Edge: PUSH.


TCU Secondary:

CB - Rafael Priest (5-10 163) - RSFR
OS - Eric Buchanan (5-11 202) - 35 tkls, 3.5 TFL, 1 INT
FS - David Roach (6-2 215) - 41 tkls, 2 INTs
OS - Marvin White (6-1 191) - 67 tkls, 3 INTs
CB - Nick Sanders (5-10 170) - TRFR

Wow. Frankly, the only team that would have a better secondary to start the year off against would be Northwestern State University. This is a team begging Shawn Bell to pass for 400 yards. Lets' start at the cornerback position, where Patterson has made an interesting call.

We've got two freshmen starting at CB. One of them is a true freshman who last played at the 4A level. Both these guys beat out the senior CBs that many projected to be starters, so you wonder what kind of depth there is going to be. You might be thinking, "Oh, wow. These guys must be good if they beat out a pair of seniors!" Not so fast, my friend.

The seniors are Mike Salvage and Vernon Russell. The pair COMBINED for 14 tackles and 1 pass breakup, playing almost exclusively on special teams. It's now that I wish I had an emoticon for being incredibly underwhelmed.

The safeties are better, no doubt, though. Buchanan and White are seniors and Roach is a junior. Roach and White finished in the top 9 tacklers for TCU last year, and Buchanan came in at #12. They all need to show better ability to cover, and they are going to be sorely tested in that regard. Looking at their team, it's becoming easier to see why they were successful against OU in the opener last year. OU was built to do everything that TCU was built to stop. They were a power running game that had a piss-poor QB that didn't know what he was doing. All TCU had to do was put 10 men in the box and run to the ball. Unfortunately, against Baylor they are going to have to prove they can cover, and not just cover, but cover well.

TCU Secondary vs. Baylor receivers:

OK, let's throw out our top receivers at the moment, based solely on my opinion:

Dominique Zeigler (6-3 182)
Trent Shelton (6-2 208)
Trey Payne (5-9 169)
David Gettis (6-4 205)
Terrance Parks (6-4 268)
Mikhail Baker (6-0 191)
Ernest Smith (6-4 194)

How do I say this?

If Bell doesn't throw for a ton of yards, then there is a serious problem. We've got Zeigler and Shelton, two NFL caliber receivers, both of whom are 6-2+, going against two freshmen cornerbacks, both of whom are giving up at least 4 inches of height.

Let's throw in Gettis and Smith, both of whom are 6-4 and around 200lbs. When we go four wide with these guys, who's going to cover who?

And depth? Payne will likely be starting, but I didn't even list Sims, Teasley, Justin Fenty who will likely play, perhaps James Hicks, Thomas White, Mike Miller, Jordan Adams... I mean we can run out three different lines of receivers, and they are all going to be better than what TCU is putting out to defend us with. That is no joke. The ONLY limitation on this matchup is the ability to execute. There is simply no way that TCU is going to be able to matchup against our receivers. None.

Edge: Baylor receivers.



TCU Defense vs. Baylor Offense:

I think it comes down to the fact that Baylor's ability to execute is going to be the chief reason for success or failure for the Baylor offense. TCU doesn't have the personnel to cover this kind of offense, and they are weak in all the wrong areas. If we were still running the offense we had last year, I wouldn't feel nearly as good as I do, but if Bell can complete some passes early, and get some confidence and the offense can get moving, then there's no reason Baylor should be able to absolutely destroy this TCU defense.

Now, I don't think we'll be operating at the level of efficiency we would need to put up 70 like Tech did a few years ago, but I think we'll be able to move the ball once we can get into the feel of the game. Actually, I wouldn't be surprised to see the offense be a lot like it was against SMU in the opener, where it sorta falters at first, sputters, then catches fire in the second half. But I think when it catches fire, it's going to be much more explosive than it was last year, and I think we'll put some points on the board.  ¶ 8/14/2006 3 Comments