I ask myself this in light of the recent article on CJ Wilson, and the air of expectations and confidence that has surrounded the program all offseason long. Why are we so confident ?
Let me pick out some reasons that our skeptics have good ground:
- Even with our "great" defense last year, we ranked 8th in scoring and 10th in total yardage allowed in conference.
- The receiving corps we are calling one of the "best in the Big XII" if not THE best, caught only 222 passes last year (6th in the Big XII) for 2,288 yards (7th in the Big XII) and 13 TDs (T-9th in the Big XII).
- We lost 7 starters on defense, including many of our leaders in Allred, Andrews and Lane.
- We got blown out by Tech and Texas by a combined 90-0.
I can understand those reasons, I can see why people think that. I really can. And there's a chance that they are right and I (we?) are wrong. There's a chance that the defense isn't as good as we thought it was, and that our returning playmakers aren't as good as we think they are.
Then there's the other side of the equation. Say our opponents are as good as they think they are.
- TCU was 11-1 last year. Yes, they dropped the game to SMU, but they beat OU, they ran through the MWC undefeated and beat ISU in a bowl game.
- Washington State had a worse record than we did, but they lost 5 games by 17 total points. We like to say we were THIS CLOSE to a 7-4 season. WSU was THIS CLOSE to a 9-2 season.
- Texas A&M has a bad pass defense. But maybe McGee's leadership IS the difference. Maybe Fran will utilize their good offensive line and those three running backs perfectly and they get to rest plenty because of the weak non-conference schedule. Maybe Darnell IS the answer on defense. [ok, I know. That's TOO much of a stretch]
- Kansas and Kansas State have had a lot more success than Baylor lately, maybe we are underestimating their talent. They are young, but young players have a way of coming together at certain moments and playing way over their heads, especially when they smell a chance at an upset. Maybe we should keep that in mind.
In the hopes of being as objective as possible, I've tried to think about these things. I've tried to really look at the matchups in personnel. But I still think 7-5 is the answer to how this team will perform this year.
This defense did have moments where they didn't look fantastic, but there were moments when they stood up and dominated people. They gave up a lot of rushing yards, but they have looked a lot tougher this offseason than I remember. I'm not sure if that's the addition of Coach Kinne, the result of Coach Wnek having an offseason with the guys on the line, or what, but there's a toughness there that wasn't present last year. Which is actually a surprise to me, because I thought we would continue to suffer that going against a more finesse-type offense.
The receiving corps numbers suffered because we had an OC that didn't know what QB to use, kept trying to run a system that called for a big arm when we didn't have one, and had incredibly questionable play-calling. More than looking at those numbers and getting discouraged, I look at them and think, "Man, these guys are going to shock everyone." Seriously, the fact that Dominique Zeigler has averaged 531 yards over the last two years is sick. This is a guy that should have been averaging 1,000 yards a year. Trent Shelton is an even better case of a guy who should have produced way more. This system is going to change all that.
Losing the starters on defense was a blow, no doubt. We'll miss Andrews, Allred, Harper, Gary, Lindstrom, Lane, and Murphy. They were a big part of our team for a long time. But let's try to remember that it's not like we are going to only be playing with 4 players on defense. We lose Lane, but gain Crawford. We lose Andrews and gain Stiggers. We lose Gary and Murphy, but replace them with 4 other senior starters, Vincent Rhodes(who started 2 games last year), Julian Hill, and a lot of talented youth. In place of Harper and Allred, we get Moore and Jones. Jones is one of the most promising players on defense and looks to be a 4-year starter. While we lose Lindstrom, we keep Linquist (who started 4 games last year) at that position.
The Tech and Texas games were our most disappointing performances for me. Against Tech, we were down by 6 points with 10 minutes left in the game. We had confused and basically shut down Tech's offense up to that point. We had held them to 159 yards passing. That's an outstanding start on a game against Tech. But our offense stunningly didn't show up (ala Texas A&M). Here we are, just like the A&M game, facing a defense that we should have had no problem moving the ball on and scoring against and we proved incredibly inept.
The Texas game started out well. Only down 6-0 after the first quarter, I was feeling pretty good about the game. That feeling quickly seeped away as Texas went off for 21 points in the second quarter. And we hadn't done anything on offense. 90 yards in the first half. Granted we were playing the eventual National Champions. Granted we were starting a new QB. But we didn't do anything. Very frustrating. But NOT indicative of the year we had last year. You take those two games out, and we outscored our opponents by 35 points.
There's also the "close" victories. We only beat SMU by 5, Army by 10, and OSU by 10. But the common thread of all those games is that Morriss emptied the bench at the end of the game. Against SMU and Army, he played a lot of young players to get them ready for the Big XII season in which they would be expected to contribute. Against OSU (on senior day), Morriss played a lot of guys that would never otherwise have seen the field. In the SMU game, we gave up a touchdown with 19 seconds left. In the Army game, we gave up a touchdown with 45 seconds left in the game. And THIS is the best/worse: Against OSU, we gave up 13 points in the last 50 seconds.
All that doesn't really matter, but the bottom line is that there is GOOD reason to be confident this year. There is good reason to feel good about this team. This isn't minimizing losses and maximizing gains, it's recognizing that the guys we are bringing in are more in line with what Baylor needs to compete at the Big XII level.
Wow, this was MUCH longer than I thought it would be.
CJ Backs up His Smack in the Houston Chronicle
This is an article that came out today that is filled with more CJ-isms. Now TCU fans will undoubtedly get their feelings hurt or feel upset in some way reading these things, but know this: CJ is just joking around.
Sorta.
"They recruited a guy they felt was better than I was. I have no problem
with that," he said. "So when we go out there, if you see me pointing at a coach or two or some players, you'll know why. The guy they recruited over me, no disrespect to him, but I still don't know who this guy is. He's on the roster. I will be pointing at him, too."
He probably will point at the TCU coaches. And it will be hilarious. Think about that for a second. CJ Wilson, All-Big XII (Not MWC), Thorpe Award candidate, led the Big XII in interceptions last year, Heisman-hopeful (I'll explain later), and TCU passed on him for some nobody... Wow.
But you're probably wondering about what I meant about the Heisman-hopeful bit. Here ya go:
“Charles Woodson did it. He’s No. 2. Why not take it up a notch to No. 3? The Thorpe Award is already here with Thomas Everett. I wanted to get it out of the case, but my name’s not on it, so they’ll know it’s not mine. But I want the Heisman.”
Now you can say that Woodson also returned kicks and punts, but are you going to tell him he can't do it? I'm not.
CJ is one of the best players on the team. That fact is sometimes overlooked, especially since the secondary is so strong. But there aren't many 6-1 195 guys that get the title of "Fastest Man in the Conference" as CJ did this past offseason. Think Anthony Henry, cornerback for the Dallas Cowboys. There's a reason there have been NFL scouts at nearly every practice watching CJ (and Arline, Zeigler and Shelton, too).
Don't be too upset at the smack talking from CJ. He does it in a joking way, because he's a joyful guy.
It's going to be good, clean fun. It's going to be worth your ticket."
I bet it will be, I'm counting on it.
¶ 8/30/2006 4 Comments
