Baylor Football Blog
Saturday, August 26, 2006
Baylor Football Blog "Realistic" Season Predictions
And here it is. Try to remember that I am making this prediction knowing that there are a number of question marks not only with Baylor's football team, but with our opponents as well. Texas, Texas A&M, Texas Tech, OU, Kansas, Kansas State, Colorado, Northwestern State and Army will all be breaking in new QBs. Think about that for a second. 9 of the 12 teams we are facing this year will have QBs that aren't used to facing big time defenses and producing over the long haul. Only Oklahoma State, TCU and Washington State have QBs returning with more than 1 start. If our secondary can be as good as we think it is, then this might be one of the most important factors in how our season ends up.
Another of the biggest factors in our success is going to be our OL. Our starters will be fine if they can stay healthy (that's been an issue with Travis Farst and Will Blaylock), but our depth is questionable. There are probably only 6-8 OL that are truly ready for the Big XII. There are some that might be able to get there throughout the season, but we will need our starters healthy the whole year in order to truly have a breakout season. Losing Blaylock last year likely kept us from winning the A&M game, and might have had an effect on the Nebraska game as well. This is even more importat this year with our new offensive scheme.
Which brings us to the next biggest factor for success in the coming year: the Bear Raid offense. There is no way we can know how effective this offense will be when it comes to live games. No matter how competitive our defense is with our offense, they can't replicate the feelings our opponents will have for us. On the flip side, there are few secondaries that we are going to face that can replicate the speed and skill of our own, so that might prove to be somewhat of a balance.
I will make a prediction of win or lose as well as points for and against. As the season progresses, I will take a game-by-game prediction of what I think the outcome will be, but ya'll can feel free to rip me throughout the season if this initial prediction proves false. Here we go...
TCU - Win 27-21
There are many factors that go into this prediction. I see our offense struggling early, scoring only a couple field goals in the first half, much like SMU of last year. But in the second half as the team settles down, our superiority at wide receiver over TCUs corner backs will result in scoring 3 TDs in the second half to win the game. TCU will score consistently, I'm thinking about 1 TD each quarter for the first three, but our defense will stiffen up as they get used to the playing style of TCU and hold them as the game closes, allowing the offense to win the game for us.
Northwestern State University - W 56-10
Our scheme, our athleticism, pretty much everything will go our way in this game. I give him 10 points because I believe we'll likely have 2nd and 3rd string players in for the fourth quarter and might give up a TD. The game won't be in question after our first two drives.
@Washington State University - L 17-21
Our defense will carry us in this game on the road, but it won't be enough. Our offense will struggle to put points on the board being on the road. I also feel that after an emotional game against TCU and an easy game against NWSU, we will likely find ourselves underestimating WSU. This game could easily go our way, if our offense can click early, but I think we are going to struggle.
Army - W 42-7
We should have beaten Army by a lot more than we did last year, and this year we get them at home and we are more explosive offensively. Army loses their talented running back from last year, and their own version of Shawn Bell. They will try to replace him with a career backup, someone that was unable to seat Dahman for three years. I think this game will be relatively easy, but we likely won't pull away until the second half.
Kansas State - W 28-16
Like I've said before, I'm far from impressed with Prince and his ability to put Kansas State together in one year, let alone a few. KSU will be on the road with a new coach, a new QB and facing a much different Baylor than they might remember.
@Colorado - L 17-24
Thin air is Colorados best home field advantage. Unless our offense gels very quickly, I think we'll have most of our early troubles on the road. I think we have an even chance of taking this game and a few others, but we won't win all those 50/50 games. I think this will be one that we drop.
@Texas - L 10-28
This will be the closest UT/BU games we've seen in a long while, but their defense has shown itself capable of shutting Tech's offense down and their running game is still going to be among the best in the nation, thus taking care of both our biggest offensive strength and our chief defensive weakness. With their young QB it will seem closer than the score indicates while the outcome will seem more inevitable.
Kansas - W 28-0
Their defense is young and inexperienced. We get them at home and with their offense, our defense will pitch its first shutout. We will get turnovers on defense and move the ball well on offense. We won't be smooth in our offense, yet, but we will be much more effective.
Texas A&M - W 35-17
A&M will be able to run the ball on us, but unlike Texas they won't have the defense to stop us cold. With the ability to clinch a bowl game and the recent pickup in the rivalry between our schools, the team will put up the most complete performance against a quality team in years. A&M will likely win 8 games next year, but we will be in control from wire to wire in this one.
@Texas Tech - L 13-24
Lubbock is one of the toughest places to play in the Big XII and we will struggle against a defense that sees this type of offense every day in practice. The game will likely be closer than the 11 point margin, much like last year, but we will fail to capitalize on at least one scoring drive late in the game to pull close enough to threaten.
@Oklahoma State - W 38-16
Last year we allowed OSU to close the gap in the last 50 seconds, turning a 23-point blowout into a simple 10-point margin. We also froze up offensively in the second half, scoring only 6 points. Neither of those things will happen this year as we will roll down the field and confuse Bobby Reid and whatever backup QB they put in the game when he's shell-shocked into more turnovers. They will have more weapons, but our defense will be more than up to the challenge.
Oklahoma - L 20-28
Adrian Peterson will be running behind a line that has gained a seasons worth of experience of starting and will be ready to push the ball down our throats. Their defense is good enough to slow our offense, and though I think with Paul Thompson at the helm we'll get a few turnovers, it won't be enough to overcome the unending pounding of their rushing attack. It'll be the last game of the season, so our seniors might come out big and make a difference.
So there it is. 7-5 (4-4) as a final record. I think it is possible that we finish one game in either direction of this. It's possible we pick up the game against Colorado, but equally as possible that we drop the game against OSU or Kansas.
I don't put it past this team to pick up the games against Colorado and Oklahoma, if our offense can be all it CAN be, but it's risky business to predict based on what is POSSIBLE. That's what the "best case" scenario is for.
I can also foresee this offense sputtering and struggling to a 2-2 start, and trying to catch up and dropping games that we should win en route to a 5-7 (3-5) or 6-6 (4-4) record. I really don't imagine that we will see a record any worse than that. I also think it unlikely that Baylor doesn't make a bowl game this year.
That's it, though. I'd love to hear what you have to think about the prediction, if you think me mad or even pessimistic. ¶ 8/26/2006 0 Comments
Another of the biggest factors in our success is going to be our OL. Our starters will be fine if they can stay healthy (that's been an issue with Travis Farst and Will Blaylock), but our depth is questionable. There are probably only 6-8 OL that are truly ready for the Big XII. There are some that might be able to get there throughout the season, but we will need our starters healthy the whole year in order to truly have a breakout season. Losing Blaylock last year likely kept us from winning the A&M game, and might have had an effect on the Nebraska game as well. This is even more importat this year with our new offensive scheme.
Which brings us to the next biggest factor for success in the coming year: the Bear Raid offense. There is no way we can know how effective this offense will be when it comes to live games. No matter how competitive our defense is with our offense, they can't replicate the feelings our opponents will have for us. On the flip side, there are few secondaries that we are going to face that can replicate the speed and skill of our own, so that might prove to be somewhat of a balance.
I will make a prediction of win or lose as well as points for and against. As the season progresses, I will take a game-by-game prediction of what I think the outcome will be, but ya'll can feel free to rip me throughout the season if this initial prediction proves false. Here we go...
TCU - Win 27-21
There are many factors that go into this prediction. I see our offense struggling early, scoring only a couple field goals in the first half, much like SMU of last year. But in the second half as the team settles down, our superiority at wide receiver over TCUs corner backs will result in scoring 3 TDs in the second half to win the game. TCU will score consistently, I'm thinking about 1 TD each quarter for the first three, but our defense will stiffen up as they get used to the playing style of TCU and hold them as the game closes, allowing the offense to win the game for us.
Northwestern State University - W 56-10
Our scheme, our athleticism, pretty much everything will go our way in this game. I give him 10 points because I believe we'll likely have 2nd and 3rd string players in for the fourth quarter and might give up a TD. The game won't be in question after our first two drives.
@Washington State University - L 17-21
Our defense will carry us in this game on the road, but it won't be enough. Our offense will struggle to put points on the board being on the road. I also feel that after an emotional game against TCU and an easy game against NWSU, we will likely find ourselves underestimating WSU. This game could easily go our way, if our offense can click early, but I think we are going to struggle.
Army - W 42-7
We should have beaten Army by a lot more than we did last year, and this year we get them at home and we are more explosive offensively. Army loses their talented running back from last year, and their own version of Shawn Bell. They will try to replace him with a career backup, someone that was unable to seat Dahman for three years. I think this game will be relatively easy, but we likely won't pull away until the second half.
Kansas State - W 28-16
Like I've said before, I'm far from impressed with Prince and his ability to put Kansas State together in one year, let alone a few. KSU will be on the road with a new coach, a new QB and facing a much different Baylor than they might remember.
@Colorado - L 17-24
Thin air is Colorados best home field advantage. Unless our offense gels very quickly, I think we'll have most of our early troubles on the road. I think we have an even chance of taking this game and a few others, but we won't win all those 50/50 games. I think this will be one that we drop.
@Texas - L 10-28
This will be the closest UT/BU games we've seen in a long while, but their defense has shown itself capable of shutting Tech's offense down and their running game is still going to be among the best in the nation, thus taking care of both our biggest offensive strength and our chief defensive weakness. With their young QB it will seem closer than the score indicates while the outcome will seem more inevitable.
Kansas - W 28-0
Their defense is young and inexperienced. We get them at home and with their offense, our defense will pitch its first shutout. We will get turnovers on defense and move the ball well on offense. We won't be smooth in our offense, yet, but we will be much more effective.
Texas A&M - W 35-17
A&M will be able to run the ball on us, but unlike Texas they won't have the defense to stop us cold. With the ability to clinch a bowl game and the recent pickup in the rivalry between our schools, the team will put up the most complete performance against a quality team in years. A&M will likely win 8 games next year, but we will be in control from wire to wire in this one.
@Texas Tech - L 13-24
Lubbock is one of the toughest places to play in the Big XII and we will struggle against a defense that sees this type of offense every day in practice. The game will likely be closer than the 11 point margin, much like last year, but we will fail to capitalize on at least one scoring drive late in the game to pull close enough to threaten.
@Oklahoma State - W 38-16
Last year we allowed OSU to close the gap in the last 50 seconds, turning a 23-point blowout into a simple 10-point margin. We also froze up offensively in the second half, scoring only 6 points. Neither of those things will happen this year as we will roll down the field and confuse Bobby Reid and whatever backup QB they put in the game when he's shell-shocked into more turnovers. They will have more weapons, but our defense will be more than up to the challenge.
Oklahoma - L 20-28
Adrian Peterson will be running behind a line that has gained a seasons worth of experience of starting and will be ready to push the ball down our throats. Their defense is good enough to slow our offense, and though I think with Paul Thompson at the helm we'll get a few turnovers, it won't be enough to overcome the unending pounding of their rushing attack. It'll be the last game of the season, so our seniors might come out big and make a difference.
So there it is. 7-5 (4-4) as a final record. I think it is possible that we finish one game in either direction of this. It's possible we pick up the game against Colorado, but equally as possible that we drop the game against OSU or Kansas.
I don't put it past this team to pick up the games against Colorado and Oklahoma, if our offense can be all it CAN be, but it's risky business to predict based on what is POSSIBLE. That's what the "best case" scenario is for.
I can also foresee this offense sputtering and struggling to a 2-2 start, and trying to catch up and dropping games that we should win en route to a 5-7 (3-5) or 6-6 (4-4) record. I really don't imagine that we will see a record any worse than that. I also think it unlikely that Baylor doesn't make a bowl game this year.
That's it, though. I'd love to hear what you have to think about the prediction, if you think me mad or even pessimistic. ¶ 8/26/2006 0 Comments
Baylor Football Blog "Worst Case" Season Predictions
Here they are. What is the absolute worst that I think Baylor's season could look? Again, this is not my personal prediction, just what I think are basically the "can't lose" games on our schedule, and the games that we have to show up to win.
Texas Christian University - Loss
We get them at home, but if we don't come to play and play hard, we can lose to TCU. This is going to be a tight game as it is, and we are going to need guys to make plays on offense and defense to pull it out. We very well might lose this game to open the season.
Northwestern State University - Win
D1-AA. We'd have to leave the first two strings at home to lose this one. They have a couple players, but they don't anywhere near the players to make this a game. This will be an easier game than Samford last year.
@Washington State University - Loss
On the road a LONG way from home. They have a quick strike offense and we could struggle in our first road experience.
Army - Win
We beat them last year on the road, and they are replacing both their QB and their RB. We can't lose this game.
Kansas State - Loss
This was the closest Big XII game to be a "Win" even on the worst possible season, but there isn't a Big XII team that we can sleep on and beat.
@Colorado - Loss
On the road in the thin air, the Bear Raid offense might slow down and the defense might run out of gas.
@Texas - Loss
Yeah, on to Kansas...
Kansas - Loss
See Kansas State
Texas A&M - Win
Fran could stay in B/CS and the players could coach themselves to a victory, I guess...
@Texas Tech - Loss
This was a loss in the Best Case, remember?
@Oklahoma State - Loss
Bobby Reid could have the light click on and realize he's got a ton of potential and start utilizing it. Doubtful, but possible.
Oklahoma - Loss
AD goes crazy and their defense shuts down our offense. You know, kinda like in 2004.
So, 2-10. The opposite of our "best case" scenario. I think it's more likely that we got 10-2 than 2-10, but probable and possible are two different things.
So, we've established that the season will end up between 2 and 10 wins. In the next entry, I'll throw my guess into the ring. As soon as I figure that out! ¶ 8/26/2006 0 Comments
Texas Christian University - Loss
We get them at home, but if we don't come to play and play hard, we can lose to TCU. This is going to be a tight game as it is, and we are going to need guys to make plays on offense and defense to pull it out. We very well might lose this game to open the season.
Northwestern State University - Win
D1-AA. We'd have to leave the first two strings at home to lose this one. They have a couple players, but they don't anywhere near the players to make this a game. This will be an easier game than Samford last year.
@Washington State University - Loss
On the road a LONG way from home. They have a quick strike offense and we could struggle in our first road experience.
Army - Win
We beat them last year on the road, and they are replacing both their QB and their RB. We can't lose this game.
Kansas State - Loss
This was the closest Big XII game to be a "Win" even on the worst possible season, but there isn't a Big XII team that we can sleep on and beat.
@Colorado - Loss
On the road in the thin air, the Bear Raid offense might slow down and the defense might run out of gas.
@Texas - Loss
Yeah, on to Kansas...
Kansas - Loss
See Kansas State
Texas A&M - Win
Fran could stay in B/CS and the players could coach themselves to a victory, I guess...
@Texas Tech - Loss
This was a loss in the Best Case, remember?
@Oklahoma State - Loss
Bobby Reid could have the light click on and realize he's got a ton of potential and start utilizing it. Doubtful, but possible.
Oklahoma - Loss
AD goes crazy and their defense shuts down our offense. You know, kinda like in 2004.
So, 2-10. The opposite of our "best case" scenario. I think it's more likely that we got 10-2 than 2-10, but probable and possible are two different things.
So, we've established that the season will end up between 2 and 10 wins. In the next entry, I'll throw my guess into the ring. As soon as I figure that out! ¶ 8/26/2006 0 Comments
