It's college football time!!

I haven't been a very good blog updater, and I'm sure there's probably 0 people reading this blog, but I thought it was high time to start the previews for the upcoming year.

Alright, onto the TCU Preview:

Let me start the preview by saying I'm in the group that beleives that TCU is among the most over-rated teams in the history of college football. I grew up in Fort Worth, I still live in Arlington, and my wife goes to medical school a few miles from TCU and my mother teaches there, so I'm quite familiar with the school. It's amazing what a school can get for beating up on the little sisters of the blind for a few years in a row.

Anyway...


TCU Quarterbacks:

TCU is going to go with the guy that brought them victories the second half of last year, Jeff Ballard. Last year he passed for 1801 yards on 60% completion for 13 TDs with 7 INTs. He also rushed for 314 yards and 8 TDs. He doesn't have a huge arm, and while he throws for a high completion percentage, he threw 7 INTs.

Thanks to his running backs and offensive line, Ballard got to sit back and deliver the ball. As I'll show later on in the preview, that won't be the case this year. He'll have to show the ability to make quick decisions or the turnovers could start to pile up.

He also loses his best receiver by far, so having someone to throw to is going to be a question. Without Rodgers as a safety valve, it will be interesting how Ballard handles dealing with the rush.

There is depth behind Ballard, but it's not giving anyone fits. Sitting at #2 is TCUs very good 2nd baseman. While he's a good runner, he only threw 9 passes last year and is not a strong passer to begin with. Behind him is Marcus Jackson, another dual-threat QB who redshirted last year. Unless there are two injuries at QB or a blowout either way, there's almost no chance of Baylor fans seeing Jackson take the field.

TCU QBs vs. Baylor Secondary:

Ballard saw the following secondaries last year: BYU, NMU, Wyoming, Army, Air Force, San Diego St., CSU, UNLV, Iowa State.

Of those schools, only Army (#10), CSU (#39) and Wyoming (#40) are in the Top 60 in pass defense. I have to admit that I was shocked when I saw that Army was #10... That's 7 teams that he faced that are ranked #61 or worse in pass defense.

Of those schools, only Iowa State (#20), San Deigo State (#22), Army (#44) and Wyoming (#50) were in the Top 75(!) in pass effeciency defense. And even still, Ballard threw 7 INTs.

Baylor ranked #13 in the nation in pass effeciency defense and #57 in passing yards allowed.

I think Baylor's secondary, with two senior All-American/All-Big XII-candidate CBs, will give Ballard more than he can handle.

Edge: Baylor Secondary


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TCU Running Backs:

Now here is somewhere TCU has real talent. Merrill, Hobbs, and Brown combined for 1,740 yards with Hobbs missing most of the year with a groin injury. Aaron Brown was tremendous as a freshman. The key is: Can they stay healthy? Hobbs has fought injury problems his whole career. That won't really be a factor against Baylor, since it's unlikely that more than 1 of them is going to be injured, if any, so I'll ignore that.

TCU RBs vs. Baylor LBs:

Our linebackers are going to have to grow up and get wise in a hurry. They can't afford to give these guys any room. Brown, in particular, will take it the distance if you don't keep him bottled up. Merrill is a jack-of-all-trades type back, not particularly gifted in any one area, but he's solid all around. He'll catch the ball out of the backfield about as well as Paul Mosley, and will ground out the yards.

Without their line clearing the way it did last year, yards are going to be harder to come by, but our linebackers are going to have their hands full keeping track of these guys, and still staying aware of the passing game. It will be a test that will show us quickly how ready they are ready for primetime.

Edge: TCU RBs


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TCU Offensive Line:


OK, I should have probably started with this section, because it has such a strong effect on the other positions. Bottom line, TCU is gutted along the line. Yes, they have a very good to great OL in Herbert Taylor, but one tackle does not a line make. This line is going to be under-sized and made up of guys that mostly haven't done anything yet in their careers at TCU. There are a pair of former defensive tackles starting on one side of the line and there is almost no depth behind these guys.

And that's why TCU is going to have a bad year. Last year they mauled people along the offensive line. Their running backs didn't have to worry about getting tackled behind the line, their QBs didn't have to worry about taking a sack, because it basically didin't happen. TCU only allowed 12 sacks all year long. Taylor only allowed one sack himself. Ballard is going to get dirty this year, and probably often.

At tackles, TCU has Taylor (6-4 287) who is an excellent lineman and Maurice Bowman (6-4 290). Taylor will be starting for his fourth year and definitely a NFL-caliber player, Bowman is another senior that was a backup last year, and a former defensive tackle. He's had problems staying healthy in the past, but that shouldn't be an issue for the first game.

At guard, TCU has Giles Montgomery (6-5 288), another former defensive lineman, and Matty Lindner (6-4 293) a career backup. Giles started against ISU at guard, but hasn't done much besides that. Lindner is a guy that has been developing since getting to TCU as a 255lb prospect. He hasn't really bulked all that much in his four years at TCU, adding only 38 pounds since arriving.

At center, TCU has Blake Schlueter (6-3 275). He's been adding weight since arriving as a 235lb center prospect, and now that Stephen Culp has graduated will take his place in the starting role.

As a group, I find them incredibly underwhelming for a Top 25 program.


TCUs OL vs. Baylors DLine:

Frankly, I think these guys are going to get torn up. Let's put it this way: TCU is supposed to have awesome DEs and they got 3 sacks on OU, 1 on Army and 5 on ISU. Our DEs were supposed to be a weak aspect of our defense and we got 4 sacks on OU, 5 sacks on Army, and 4 sacks on ISU. I think we are good for at least 4 or 5 sacks against TCU. I also think they struggle to run the ball consistently, though they will probably get a few long runs. The passing game for TCU is going to struggle as Ballard starts to get happy feet, struggles to read our defense and starts throwing picks. But it will all start from the pressure brought by Baylor's DLine.

Edge: Baylor's Defensive Line

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TCUs Receivers:

Here's what TCU has coming back from last year:

Quentin Harmon (6' 175) - 28 catches, 318 yards (11.4ypc), 1 TD
Michael DePriest (6'2" 185) - 9 catches, 223 yards (24.8ypc), 3 TDs
Marcus Brock (6' 185) - didn't play last year, but had 5 catches for 49 yards (9.8ypc) and 1 TD in 2004
Chad Andrus(TE) (6'4" 246) - 10 catches for 115 yards (11.5 ypc)
Donald Massey (5'11" 170) - 21 catches for 203 yards (9.7 ypc)
Derek Moore (6'3" 174) - 19 catches for 222 yards (11.7ypc), 1 TD


Uh huh. I can't say that I'm all that impressed. They lost Cory Rodgers, who had 24 more catches than the #2 receiver and 35 more catches than the #3 receiver, and had 367 yards more than the #2 receiver. That's more than double. He also had the best YPC of any receiver with 10 or more catches.

I think TCU fans believe that this receiver corps is going to be ok, but what they aren't willing to realize is that Rodgers commanded so much attention that without him on the field, and without a player like him to take his place, there is going to be a huge void. Defenses will no longer have to key on one player. Rodgers accounted for 25% of all passing yards in TCUs offense last year. With 9 players getting double-digit catches, that's an astounding total.

Quentin Harmon is going to be asked to step into the #1 receiver role. He's been consistent the last two years playing opposite Rodgers, averaging 24 catches, 318.5 yards and 2 TDs in the last two years. Michael DePriest will take over Harmon's role of #2 receiver. Over the last two years, he's averaged 14 catches for 271 yards and 2 TDs. You'd have to assume that his catches will go up as he gets a larger role in the offense, but you'd also have to assume that as his catches go up, his YPC will decrease as he's asked to do a wider variety of jobs catching the ball, not just going deep.

Marcus Brock is a good athlete, and has some decent speed. He'll be called upon to play as the third receiver. TCU will have to hope that he stays healthy after missing all of last year, but if he's on the field then he'll definitely be an upgrade over TCUs other choices.

TCUs WR vs. Baylors Secondary:

This is gonna hurt TCU. Bad. Baylor plays in a conference where our cornerbacks are regularly going against receivers that are bigger and stronger than they are, and they do more than compete with them. TCU is putting out some receivers that our CBs are going to be bigger, stronger, faster and more experienced than. Let's look at these matchups:

Quentin Harmon (6' 164) vs. CJ Wilson (6'1" 198)
Ignore the fact that Harmon has less than 50 catches in the last two years and hasn't distinguished himself on the field, and the fact that CJ led the Big XII in interceptions, was an all-conference player, and is on the Thorpe Award watch list. Harmon is giving away an inch of height, and 34 pounds to his defender. And CJ is one of the fastest players on Baylor's team.

Michael DePriest (6'2" 185) vs. Anthony Arline (6'2" 191)
Basically, see above. DePriest doesn't give away as much height or weight to Arline, but Arline is just as fast as DePriest and far more experienced.

Marcus Brock (6' 185) vs. Brandon Stiggers (6' 190)
Neither of these players were on the team last year, but Stiggers was playing and shining in his JUCO in his year away from Baylor while Brock was on the trainers table. Brock is a great athlete, but so is Stiggers. Both run in the 4.5 range, so there's no edge there. The question is: with the state of the line, how often is Ballard going to have time to check down to his third option, and will he be open even if the time is available? Brock hasn't shown anything in college and I don't think he'll start against Baylor's secondary.

Edge: Baylor Secondary.



I think even with the losses that Baylor has suffered on defense, there is still plenty to keep TCU from scoring much. TCUs offensive line was a power last year, no doubt. But with the losses they suffered and the lack of talent that they have coming in to replace those guys, it's going to cause a ripple effect throughout the whole offense. That's not to say that they won't get better, but there's not going to be any improvement in their first game, especially on the road.

I would really be shocked if TCU managed to score more than 20 points on this defense, and I wouldn't be surprised to see them score as little as 10-13 points.  ¶ 8/04/2006 4 Comments